Glucose Levels Associated with the Occurrence of New Cases of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Men and Women Aged 45–69 Years in Novosibirsk
https://doi.org/10.31550/1727-2378-2024-23-4-38-44
Abstract
Aim. What glucose level is associated with the occurrence of new cases of diabetes mellitus 2 type (T2DM).
Design. Prospective cohort study.
Materials and methods. A survey of a representative sample of Novosibirsk residents was carried out in 2003–2005 as part of the international project Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe. The presented work included indicators of 3146 people aged 45–69 years without a previous history of carbohydrate metabolism disorders (all individuals with established T2DM at the time of the initial examination were excluded from the analysis). The study included people without a history of diabetes, examined in 2003–2005 and again in 2015–2018. New cases of T2DM were diagnosed in 2003–2021. According to epidemiological criteria, diabetes was established when the fasting blood glucose level was ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, according to the anamnesis and the City Diabetes Registry.
Results. Initially, elevated fasting glucose concentrations (5.6–6.9 mmol/l) were detected in 45.3% of participants (28.5% — 5.6– 6.0 mmol/l, hyperglycemia 6.1–6.9 mmol/l — 16.8%). According to dynamic observation data, by 2021, 316 (10.1%) people will be diagnosed with T2DM. The threshold blood glucose value that determines the risk of developing T2DM over time is 5.7 mmol/l, Se = 64.2%, Sp = 61.4%, AUC = 0.67.
Conclusion. According to our data, among residents of Novosibirsk aged 45–69 years without diabetes, the prevalence of fasting hyperglycemia is high (5.6 mmol/l or more). Glucose level 5.7 mmol/L is the threshold value associated with new cases of T2DM in people 45–69 years of age.
About the Authors
S. V. Mustafina
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Mustafina, S.V.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
L. V. Shcherbakova
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Shcherbakova, L.V.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
V. I. Alferova
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alferova, V.I.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
V. A. Mogilnaya
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Mogilnaya, V.A.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
S. K. Malyutina
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Malyutina, S.K.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
O. D. Rymar
Research Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine — Branch of the Institute of Cytology and Genetics, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rymar, O.D.
175/1 Boris Bogatkov Str., Novosibirsk, 630089
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For citations:
Mustafina S.V., Shcherbakova L.V., Alferova V.I., Mogilnaya V.A., Malyutina S.K., Rymar O.D. Glucose Levels Associated with the Occurrence of New Cases of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Men and Women Aged 45–69 Years in Novosibirsk. Title. 2024;23(4):38-44. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31550/1727-2378-2024-23-4-38-44
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